Embarcadero Institute Unravels the 3.5 Million Housing Shortage Lie that has Panicked Sacramento and Fuels the Trickle-down Lobby.
The Legislature wants 3.5 million housing units built by 2025, an impossible goal based on bad data from developer consultant McKinsey & Company, which used New York’s housing per capita as the goal for us. But California is not New York, and McKinsey overshot by a stunning 2 million homes — at least. Using a similar state like Texas as a benchmark, California needs 1.5 million, not 3.5M. Using a comprehensive “housing per capita” from all 50 states, California needs 1.4 million units.
But wait! The state Housing and Community Development department has the most accurate data by far. The State’s”multivariate’ model says California needs 1.1 million, not 3.5 million units.
The 3.5 million, repeated endlessly in Sacramento, has set the legislature into panic and produced dozens of bad policy housing bills that punish cities, blame communities, and drive more profit to developers, all driven by a completely wrong bit of data. When will the California media wake up?