Livable California believes our state legislature is panicking, producing a Wild West of harmful and ineffective housing bills — driven by an utterly wrong claim that California has a 3.5 million unit housing shortage. The true shortage, of about 1.1 million, would and should be addressed through rational, incremental effort — without the panic and Wild West atmosphere.

Here’s an excerpt from the stunning, game-changing new report by Embarcadero Institute:

3.5 million is the number arrived at by McKinsey & Co. They argued that New York State’s housing unit per capita should be California’s goal, but our demographics and household formations are very different than New York’s. A more comprehensive “housing per capita” model suggests the additional housing needed by 2015 is 1.4 million.

Simple linear models produce a range of answers, but in any universe, 3.5 million is an outlier. California’s Department of Housing and Community Development already uses a sophisticated model to assess state housing need. Their multivariate model suggests the additional housing needed by 2025 is around 1.1 million, as opposed to 3.5 million.

Please click here to read the stunning, game-changing research by Embarcadero Institute.