Livable California believes our state legislature is panicking, producing a Wild West of harmful and ineffective housing bills — driven by an utterly wrong claim that California has a 3.5 million unit housing shortage. The true shortage, of about 1.1 million, would and should be addressed through rational, incremental effort — without the panic and Wild West atmosphere.
Here’s an excerpt from the stunning, game-changing new report by Embarcadero Institute:
3.5 million is the number arrived at by McKinsey & Co. They argued that New York State’s housing unit per capita should be California’s goal, but our demographics and household formations are very different than New York’s. A more comprehensive “housing per capita” model suggests the additional housing needed by 2015 is 1.4 million. …
Simple linear models produce a range of answers, but in any universe, 3.5 million is an outlier. California’s Department of Housing and Community Development already uses a sophisticated model to assess state housing need. Their multivariate model suggests the additional housing needed by 2025 is around 1.1 million, as opposed to 3.5 million.